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本站导读:   7月5日-6日,林毅夫、张维迎、黄有光等国内外多位著名经济学家及几十位教授学者齐聚上海,纪念经济学家杨小凯逝世十周年,探讨经济学专业领域的市场、产业与分工,同时,分析中国改革历程与经济前景。

 

  7月5日-6日,林毅夫、张维迎、黄有光等国内外多位著名经济学家及几十位教授学者齐聚上海,纪念经济学家杨小凯逝世十周年,探讨经济学专业领域的市场、产业与分工,同时,分析中国改革历程与经济前景。

  讨论会上,林毅夫、张维迎这两位中国经济学界的顶级高手再次论战,观点激烈碰撞、交锋。林毅夫认为中国过去35年经济高速增长,改革取得了巨大成功,同时说明政府做的大部分是正确的;而张维迎缺表示对此越来越悲观,他认为现在还很难判断经济改革成功与否,我们随时可能倒退,甚至可能摧毁原来取得的成就。

  林毅夫主张,讨论的重点不应该是“政府要不要干预”,而是哪一种政府干预能够真正促进经济发展,哪一种干预会失败。“如果要政府去协调,当然有可能失败,但是没有政府协调更失败。”

  张维迎坚持认为:“大量的事实证明,政府无论怎么做都不可能做的更好。”

  林毅夫:“企业家精神很重要,但是企业家要发展新产品,此前的那些公共知识和基础设施,要是没有国家的投入,实际上也不会出现。”

  张维迎:“不是这样,中国最伟大的思想家孔子不是政府资助的。创造思想不一定需要政府资助。”

  以下是凤凰财经整理的辩论过程:

  论战一:亚当·斯密对政府作用的阐述今天是否适用

  林毅夫:维迎谈得挺好,但是他最后的结论引用了亚当·斯密的一句话,认为政府只要保护产权,建设法律制度就够了。亚当·斯密《国富论》是1768年开始写,花了8年时间,1776年出版。在1768年之前,亚当斯密大概花了二三十年时间研究文献,这些文献大概也就是五十年、一百年以前的文献,是在英国工业革命之前,所以整个亚当·斯密的《国富论》中,其实技术是给定的,然后市场规模不断扩大,分工细化。工业革命的标志是纺织工业的机械化生产,最早是在曼彻斯特。我们知道,工业革命以后,技术变迁的速度加快,新产业不断涌现,就像刚才维迎讲的,两百年前亚当·斯密的时代,产品只有十的两次方,不到三次方,现在是十的7次方、8次方。这是亚当·斯密的《国富论》没有讨论的。

  维迎谈企业家精神,我认为企业家精神也非常重要。但是企业家怎么出现?除了他天生的对市场发现的敏感度以及风险判断外,还需要什么?18世纪工业革命以后,经济加快发展,有所谓R&D说法。“D”,就是新产品、新技术的开发,这确实是企业家做的。但是企业家在做“D”之前的“R”,就是科学的、对自然的认识的加深。由于科学的对自然认识的加深,投入非常大,风险也非常大,而且成果出现以后是个公共产品,所以企业家自己是不会做的。

  实际上在美国,所有重要的新产业、新产品的出现,背后都有国家的支撑,是国家在“R”方面的支持。比如Google,他的计算方法是NSF的一个项目。再比如互联网、生物技术等等都有很多国家的支持。美国最主要有两个机构对“R”支持,一个是NSF,美国国家科学基金,一个是NIH,美国国立卫生研究院。可是支持“basic research”的钱是有限的,因此他们支持“basic research”的时候,已经想了对新技术、新产品,会有什么影响,然后决定哪些“basic research”需要国家做。所以如果美国对前沿的、与技术有关的“basic research”是有选择的,那就代表他有产业政策。

  第二,政府部门购买新产品,也对企业家发明技术、实现市场化产生很大影响。所以我要补充一下,维迎对企业家精神的重视,我是承认的。然后企业研发新产品,同时政府给予充分的自由和产权保护,我也承认。但是,最重要就是企业家要发展新产品,此前的那些公共知识,要是没有国家的投入,实际上也不会出现。所以应该是企业跟政府的合作。

  张维迎:亚当·斯密研究的是两百多年前,工业革命发生之前,这没错。但是科学并不总是在进步的,我不认为今天的思想一定比上个世纪先进。无论自然科学、社会科学,都有这个问题。为什么呢?因为人类在认识世界的过程中是免不了犯错误的。比如说日心说,其实古希腊人就提出来了,后来被否认,一直到哥白尼才得到认同。经济学更是这样。所以我认为不能说因为亚当斯密那时候不具有现代的技术,他的理论就比现在的更差。

  我们看美国,在产业革命时候,大量新产品的出现,没有什么国家支持;我们看英国,包括科学的出现,很多没有什么国家支持;然后我们看很多基础的研究,美国最好的大学都是私立大学。

  如果我们研究上世纪五十年代到七十年代的中国,所有事情都离不开国家,但不能证明没有国家参与这个就不会有,反而没有国家参与,我们有可能更好。那时候我们说没有国家,没有政府,你能用铅笔吗?铅笔是国有企业生产的。但我们看现在国家不生产铅笔,我们铅笔多好啊。我不认为没有政府参与,这个事情就没有。我想没有国家和政府参与,这个事情可能变得更好。

  黄有光:我坐在两个人的中间,我的观点也是他们两个中间的,我认为市场和政府肯定都非常重要。我同意企业家、市场是非常重要的,但政府也必须做一些事情。但是否应该或者能够成功的做这些事情,林毅夫讲的潜在的比较优势有可能成功。我认为更加重要的是要让政府去做这些市场不能做的,像环保、食品安全这些东西更加重要。

  张维迎:我刚才强调的是政府要做的最重要的是,创造自由的环境、法治、包括产权制度的保证。

  论战二:科研与创新需不需要政府支持

  林毅夫:谈到政府和企业家,大家说我强调政府的作用,这是一个误解。好比大家说我是乐观主义,其实我不是乐观主义,我是客观主义,大家都悲观,我就变成乐观主义。现在我一直强调的是有为的政府和有效的市场。有效的市场当然是靠竞争、靠企业家。但因为现在大家不讲有为的政府,所以好像说我强调政府。其实你看我所有的文章,我两个方面都看,因为有效的市场要竞争和企业家的精神。国内现在大部分人反对政府,所以我就变得比较突出。

  再者,我们现在是否可以取消对一些大型的国有企业的补贴?过去当我们资本非常短缺,是一个低收入国家的时候,那些大型国有企业资本很密集,不给补贴就死了,所以当时给补贴是雪中送炭。现在大型的国有企业实际上是符合比较优势的,产品在国际市场上面可以竞争,再补贴就是锦上添花,所以补贴应该取消掉。国企是不是一定要私有化?过去我们总是把国有企业失败认为是国有的,我认为这个看法是错误的。实际上前苏联东欧国家很多大型国有企业私有化以后,给的补贴更多。私有化以后,寻租的积极性更高,这不仅在苏联东欧这样,在拉丁美洲也有很多这样的现象。但如果说已经符合比较优势的时候,产权重要吗?如果是小企业,中型企业我认为私有化很有效,因为所有者和经营者是同一个人。但对于大型企业,所有者和经营者一定是分离的,经营者一定是带领人,在那个情况下竞争的市场更重要。

  最后提一下,有一个教授提到一个经济体在赶超的时候一定要政府参与,因为靠市场发展不起来。但如果按照比较优势发展,是否需要政府?这是需要讨论的。按照比较优势发展,企业必须要政府,因为在产业升级的过程中也必须完善基础设施,必须改善人力资本,也必须改善金融和法治,这些都不是单个企业家可以做的,需要很多企业家做,需要协调。或者协调很难,必须政府供给。我所看到的少数几个成功的经济体,都是政府跟市场的共同努力的结果。新结构经济学,一方面是强调有为的政府,但必须提出一个框架,政府哪种方面的干预是错误的?更重要的,这个问题不是讨论政府要不要干预,而是哪一种干预能够真正促进经济发展,哪一种干预会失败。同样的情形,成功的国家都有产业政策,当然大部分产业政策是失败的,在这种情况下,我们的研究不是不要产业政策,而是哪种类型的产业政策可以成功,这样的研究更有积极的意义。

  张维迎:首先,我认为发现比较优势,利用比较优势,恰恰是企业家最擅长的。没有一个企业家会傻得在北方种水稻、南方种小麦,一定是南方种水稻、北方种小麦。企业家是最清楚比较优势的。而我们国家恰恰是政府经常乱点鸳鸯谱。如果论比较优势,政府和市场相比,市场更擅长解决比较优势。

  林毅夫:但种水稻也要灌溉啊,农民自己没法大规模灌溉。

  黄有光:科研也是重要的。

  林毅夫:科研也很重要。如果要政府去协调,当然有可能失败,但是没有政府协调更失败。

  张维迎:不是这样,中国最伟大的思想家孔子不是政府资助的。创造思想不一定需要政府资助。

  第二,关于“并不是每一个企业家都具有企业家精神”的问题,我认为,在市场中,没有企业家精神的企业是没有办法存在的。即使现在有企业家精神,以后衰老了,企业很快就会倒闭。没有企业家精神的企业还能持续存在的,只有那些政府管理的企业才能做到。在市场中,所有大企业都是小企业发展来的,没有哪一个大企业一出来就是大企业。所以我们不能说小企业适合市场,大企业适合政府管理,按照这种说法,任何企业发展成大企业后,都可以由政府收归了,这就意味着没有企业会变成大企业。

  林毅夫:这个误解我。

  张维迎:你说大企业需要政府。

  林毅夫:又误解我了。

  张维迎:还有一个问题,我们经常用“发展阶段”说事,认为中国目前所处一个特定的发展阶段,很多条件还不具备的情况下,是不是就应该更多的发挥政府的作用。这有一定道理。但是为什么现在不具备条件?因为现在没有自由。很多的条件暂时还不具备,是因为我们消灭了这些条件。

  最后,我们现在很多经济学分析政策的标准是功利主义的。我认为我们不能只从经济发展、效率的角度评价所有的政策,人有一些基本的权利不能以任何的理由去剥夺它。比如政府拆迁,即便有利于高速公路的建设,有利于GDP的增长,也不能违反基本人权,这是在毁灭很多人最善良的本性。

  论战三:政府干预能不能更有效

  张维迎:毅夫讲到他和杨小凯的后发优势和后发劣势,我理解小凯讲的后发劣势,落后国家国家由于借助了后发优势发展的很快,这个国家就自以为这就是自己的优势,这就是自己的成功,自己的体制没有问题,然后就不再进行体制改革,最后导致了后发优势变成了后发劣势。现在说中国模式不仅仅适用于中国,而且还要推展到其他的发展中国家,我觉得这就是典型的后发劣势显示出来了。

  我在2008年改革开放30周年的时候是比较乐观的,但这几年我变的相对不乐观。现在,不能说中国的改革就是成功了,我们随时可能倒退,甚至可能摧毁原来所有取得的成就。这就涉及到法治、体制的改革,也就是杨小凯讲过的。如果没有法治的改革,我觉得制度总是不稳定的,从2009年的刺激政策开始,我们一直在否定市场。

  很多经济学家经常把保护市场当做一种提高效率的工具,其实,市场并不是一个效率工具,认为市场有效率就支持,没有效率就反对。

  市场实际是一种基本的人的权利的保障。我们只有保障人的基本权利,就是自由,人权,财产权,市场经济才有一个稳定的基础。

  刚才林毅夫讲了政府的干预,我们过去总是说理想的状况就是市场出问题了,政府就能解决问题。毅夫认为我们应该研究政府怎么做的更好,但有大量的理论和事实证明,政府怎么做都不可能做的更好。

  谈到思想,在经济社会发展中,科学家只是一人之见,而且经常带有自己狭隘的、领域的偏见。包括我自己也可能有偏见,你也有可能有。所以我们只能通过公平、公开的争论,然后让每个人去思考问题,任何情况下政府都不应该运用政权的力量来强加某一种思想,这也是我一直反对的。所以我说无论秦始皇的“焚书坑儒”还是汉武帝“罢黜百家、独尊儒术”都是对市场极大的破坏,这个今天仍然没有解决。

  林毅夫:首先来讲,中国过去35年我们必须承认政府绝大多数是正确的,如果没有绝大多数正确,不可能连续35年每年9.8%的增长,也不可能是现在唯一的快速发展的新兴大国,并且没有危机跟经济危机。所以我们不能认为过去35年政府做的事都是错误的。我们应该认为95%以上都是正确的,可能有5%改进的空间,这个我们必须承认。第二点谈中国模式并不是说固定不变化,包括美国、英国,包括有完美宪政的国家,也必须要不断的改革。我们说中国的经验对其他的发展中国家有没有借鉴意义?这么多国家没有一个像中国这样。

  (本文为凤凰财经独家稿件)

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